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Correction
Aug. 3rd, 2004 | 03:51 am
My sincerest apologies to the Arizona Cardinals, who, contrary to my previous assertion, made it to the NFL playoffs once in the last 28 years, in 1998. They beat the Dallas Cowboys 20-7 in the Wildcard round, but lost 41-21 to the Vikings in the NFC divisional playoffs.
This, as I'm sure you're aware, makes the odds calculating more complicated. But be not afraid! With the help of the fine people at Ourlads' Scouting Services, I was able to correctly compute the odds to reflect the fact that the Cardinals, in the last 28 years, have actually made it to the NFL Playoffs once.
Go Cards!
So what are the odds? Well, assuming again that the teams that make the NFL playoffs each year were determined competely by chance, the odds that the Arizona Cardinals would have made the playoffs exactly once in the last 28 years are 3.235 X 10-5, or 1 in 30,906.
The odds of being dealt a four-of-a-kind in five card stud are 1 in 4,165. Perhaps they should quit playing football and start playing cards.
This, as I'm sure you're aware, makes the odds calculating more complicated. But be not afraid! With the help of the fine people at Ourlads' Scouting Services, I was able to correctly compute the odds to reflect the fact that the Cardinals, in the last 28 years, have actually made it to the NFL Playoffs once.
Go Cards!
So what are the odds? Well, assuming again that the teams that make the NFL playoffs each year were determined competely by chance, the odds that the Arizona Cardinals would have made the playoffs exactly once in the last 28 years are 3.235 X 10-5, or 1 in 30,906.
The odds of being dealt a four-of-a-kind in five card stud are 1 in 4,165. Perhaps they should quit playing football and start playing cards.
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Somebody get me a fact checker!
Aug. 3rd, 2004 | 08:54 pm
mood: humbled
music: Brad Meldhau
Seriously, somebody get me a fact checker.
Just in time for me to get a slew of new visitors from Isaac's website (welcome!), I discovered that I kind of messed up the odds again because the Cardinals also made the playoffs in 1982.
Why did I only kind of mess up?
Well, the 1982 NFL season was strike-shortened to only 9 games, which resulted (for some reason) in an expanded, 16-team playoff (as opposed to the usual 10 teams). The Cardinals, in 14th place overall (and tied for 6th in the NFC), made said playoff, but lost in the first round 41-16 to the Green Bay Packers.
Had the NFL stuck with the 10-team playoff system that was in place every other year between 1978 and 1990, rather than letting 16 out of 28 teams (more than 57%!) into the playoffs in 1982, the Cardinals wouldn't have made it. But the NFL did change the system. And discussions about the legitimacy of the whole affair aside, the Cardinals did make the playoffs 1982. It's a tainted playoff berth, to be sure, but last I checked, a tainted playoff berth is still a playoff berth. So I'm counting it.
Therefore, assuming again that the teams that make the NFL playoffs each year are determined by random selection, the odds that the Cardinals would have made the playoffs just twice in 28 years are 2.2972 X 10-4, or 1 in 4,353*.
Though I'll admit that their odds keep getting better, I think my original thesis is still valid:
The Arizona Cardinals: So bad, it's statistically significant!
*FANCY MATH UPDATE: With the gracious help of Caroline, I recalculated the odds to reflect the many changes in league size and playoff structure since 1976. The correct odds are 2.3064 X 10-4 or 1 in 4,335.
Just in time for me to get a slew of new visitors from Isaac's website (welcome!), I discovered that I kind of messed up the odds again because the Cardinals also made the playoffs in 1982.
Why did I only kind of mess up?
Well, the 1982 NFL season was strike-shortened to only 9 games, which resulted (for some reason) in an expanded, 16-team playoff (as opposed to the usual 10 teams). The Cardinals, in 14th place overall (and tied for 6th in the NFC), made said playoff, but lost in the first round 41-16 to the Green Bay Packers.
Had the NFL stuck with the 10-team playoff system that was in place every other year between 1978 and 1990, rather than letting 16 out of 28 teams (more than 57%!) into the playoffs in 1982, the Cardinals wouldn't have made it. But the NFL did change the system. And discussions about the legitimacy of the whole affair aside, the Cardinals did make the playoffs 1982. It's a tainted playoff berth, to be sure, but last I checked, a tainted playoff berth is still a playoff berth. So I'm counting it.
Therefore, assuming again that the teams that make the NFL playoffs each year are determined by random selection, the odds that the Cardinals would have made the playoffs just twice in 28 years are 2.2972 X 10-4, or 1 in 4,353*.
Though I'll admit that their odds keep getting better, I think my original thesis is still valid:
The Arizona Cardinals: So bad, it's statistically significant!
*FANCY MATH UPDATE: With the gracious help of Caroline, I recalculated the odds to reflect the many changes in league size and playoff structure since 1976. The correct odds are 2.3064 X 10-4 or 1 in 4,335.